589
FXUS62 KCAE 042341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A FOGGY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A NOTABLE WARMING
TREND AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TONIGHT.
WITH CLEARING, OR MOSTLY CLEAR, SKIES ACROSS THE AREA, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS FOG QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AGAIN. WHILE THERE IS SOME CIRRUS ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
ARE ALREADY SMALL (BETWEEN 2-6 DEGREES) AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID-40'S. SO WE WILL NOT NEED IDEAL COOLING TO PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FOG SETUP. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
FOG TONIGHT, AND HI-RES GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND RRFS REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME AS WELL. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT,
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MORE OF THE AREA AND
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISIBILITIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL HELP US AVOID ANY FREEZING FOG PROBLEMS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERALLY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 60S. EXPECTING ANOTHER MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
TUESDAY FIGURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH (NEARLY
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) BUT WITH MINIMAL FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY,
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WIND DUE TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ECMWF EFI TRENDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN SHOWING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES) DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER RIDGING DESPITE ENSEMBLES INDICATING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OH/MS VALLEYS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HANDLING THE PHASING OF SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
TAF SITES STARTING OFF WITH BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE
CLEAR, VISIBILITIES MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED, AND WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
CALM. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION, AND CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S,
CLOSE TO WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG, DENSE AT
TIMES, LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE BEGUN BRINGING MVFR RESTRICTIONS INTO TAFS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES INTO IFR/LIFR
BY 08Z AT ALL SITES. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST
THROUGH 14Z MONDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. DO BRING IMPROVEMENTS
BACK TO POTENTIAL VFR BETWEEN 14Z-15Z, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW CLOUDS END UP HOLDING IN ON A LITTLE LONGER
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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