269
FXUS62 KCAE 050606
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
106 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND
LEADING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FA. UNFORTUNATELY THESE HAVE NOT BEEN
THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AREA OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW LOCALIZED DENSE
FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
AN AERIAL EXTENSION WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S,
MEANING FREEZING FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SUGGESTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY NIGHT SO TRENDS WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO BE WATCHED. LOWS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR US LOCALLY.
HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CSRA. AS THAT TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING
70S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD JUST OFFSHORE, KEEPING THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS FRONT A BIT,
PUTTING THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN MORE ON SATURDAY. SINCE WE
ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, TIMING OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND/OR DENSE FOG EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.....
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TERMINALS EXCEPT DNL SHOW LIFR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AT CAE
AND AGS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH LIFR RESTRICTIONS SHOWN IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND
MID-MORNING. HAVING SAID THAT, THE RESTRICTIONS MAY HOLD ON AT A
FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEYOND 15Z SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE
TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ018-
020>022-025>028-030-115-116.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
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