891
FXUS62 KCAE 050917
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
417 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND
LEADING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DENSE FOG LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
- MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
09Z UPDATE: EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY FALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CLEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FA. UNFORTUNATELY THESE
HAVE NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. AREA OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF AN AERIAL EXTENSION WILL BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-30S TO LOWER 40S, MEANING FREEZING FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
AREAS OF MORNING FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SUGGESTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY NIGHT SO TRENDS WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO BE WATCHED. LOWS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR US LOCALLY.
HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CSRA. AS THAT TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING
70S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD JUST OFFSHORE, KEEPING THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS FRONT A BIT,
PUTTING THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN MORE ON SATURDAY. SINCE WE
ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, TIMING OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING....
ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG. DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CLEARS OUT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ALL TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT,
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT
AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... WATCHING FOR
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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