143
FXUS62 KCAE 051128
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THEN, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND LEADING TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, ARRIVES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT.
THE ONGOING DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS, COMBINED WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST,
WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SUGGESTING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT SO TRENDS WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO
BE WATCHED. LOWS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR US LOCALLY.
HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CSRA. AS THAT TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING
70S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD JUST OFFSHORE, KEEPING THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS FRONT A BIT,
PUTTING THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN MORE ON SATURDAY. SINCE WE
ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, TIMING OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING....
DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT CAE AND AGS WITH LIFR
CEILINGS ONGOING AT CUB AND DNL. THE ONLY TERMINAL NOT LOCKED
INTO LIFR RESTRICTIONS IS OGB. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MIDDAY. A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE THE FOG LIFTS OR BURNS OFF THAT
SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS ALREADY
SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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