756
FXUS62 KCAE 120003
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
703 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT, WITH
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUE UNTIL
7PM THIS EVENING.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TONIGHT.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SWING EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING, TAKING WITH IT THE 30-35 KT LLJ THAT WAS IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO NEAR THE FA FROM THE WEST WITH A LOOSENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THIS, WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH GUSTS ALREADY UNDER 25 MPH GENERALLY AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS,
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM AS
SCHEDULED. THOUGH, A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE,
WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM TO EXPIRE AS WELL. STRONG CAA IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND SATURDAY'S SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD DRIVE LOW
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TONIGHT, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S, AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD, DRY ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A RESULT FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SERIES OF SHARP TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
LIKE WE SAW ON SUNDAY, THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF MOSTLY
DRY FRONTS AND TROUGH PASSAGES EVERY 3-4 DAYS WILL CONTINUE;
THIS PATTERN IS BROADLY DRIVEN BY THE DECAYING PACIFIC JET
POSITIONING AND CONSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
US. SO A QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US AND DRIVE A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE NOTABLE,
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. SO
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY, BUT ONLY
~20-30% FOR THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS 3-4 DAY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
THEN CONTINUE WITH A RELAXING TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
THEN ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT HAS BEEN QUITE WINDY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON! A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LED TO WINDS THAT WERE A
BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40
MPH AT ALL SITES. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO RELAX ACROSS
THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA AFTER AROUND 06Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM THERE. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY DRY, WITH GOES DERIVED PWS
LESS THAN 0.25" MOVING INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH, IT IS LIKELY
THAT SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OVER AND THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE DRYING AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES, ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WITH DEEP
MIXING. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION, THE SC FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG FIRE
ALERT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER DISCOURAGING BURNING FROM THE
MIDLANDS TO THE COAST.
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, SO DEPENDING ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAY OCCUR
AGAIN THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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