622
FXUS62 KCAE 121541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT WEEK IS LOW, LESS THAN 30
PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE OLD AFD FORMAT.
- COLD AND VERY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
NOTE: THE NEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) FORMAT WILL BE IN
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 17Z TODAY, AND THERE WILL BE AN UPDATED
FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY 18Z USING THIS NEW FORMAT.
BECAUSE THIS WILL BE THE FINAL AFD ISSUANCE UNDER OUR OLD FORMAT,
THEY HAVE GIVEN THIS TASK TO ONE OF THE OLD TIMERS IN THE OFFICE.
AS THEY SAY, OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH THE NEW. THIS NEW FORMAT
WILL PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON OVERALL KEY MESSAGES, GUIDED BY THE
MOST IMPORTANT IMPACTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOW ON TO THE DISCUSSION.
THIS AFTERNOON: CURRENTLY, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
CONTINUE BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL KEEP A DRY AND COLD AIR AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, EVEN
WITH ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE, MAINLY DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION
CHANGE TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY INSTEAD OF THE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WE SAW YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 50
DEGREES.
TONIGHT: CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES CLOSER THE THE
REGION. WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING VERY DRY, SKIES BEING MOSTLY
CLEAR, AND WINDS GOING CALM, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COLD AND WINDY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE CLOUDS LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CROSSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.
A REINFORCING COLD, DRY AIR MASS RUSHES IN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THE SETUP LOOKS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY SO TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION, SOME LOCATIONS COULD
APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT NIGHT SHOULD THE
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED.
THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE EXTENDED BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENT
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. A FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING TROUGH BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. ONLY CLOUDS MAY BE A
FEW CIRRUS STREAKS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EVEN SO, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY, SHALLOW STEAM FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARMER RIVERS LATE TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
SHOW UP AT AGS/OGB. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS SUNSET. STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL
SET UP AFTER SUNSET, WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BRINGING
CALM WINDS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION MID-WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON PRECIP AMOUNTS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
MAY OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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