429
FXUS62 KCAE 121739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AFD FORMAT IS IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A DRY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
2) DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER RISK.
3) VERY COLD TEMPS, CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA,
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-
WEEK BEFORE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH WEAK NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP AT OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OUR NEXT, MOSTLY DRY, FRONT. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WEAK, WITH
LESS THAN 25% CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH, OR WHEN THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH. GIVEN THE
EXTREME LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING, A FEW GRAUPEL-SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT IMPACTS WOULD BE NULL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
FOLLOWING THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THURSDAY WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION REGIME. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY,
COINCIDING WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
GIVEN THE ALREADY DRY FUELS, AND WIND-RH COMBINATION; RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: VERY COLD TEMPS, CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR SO
FAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOW 20'S IN MOST SPOTS; NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE IS
ROUGHLY FROM 16-22 DEGREES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEST,
LINGERING A NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 10'S IN MANY SPOTS, CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. ONLY CLOUDS MAY BE A
FEW CIRRUS STREAKS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EVEN SO, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY, SHALLOW STEAM FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARMER RIVERS LATE TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
SHOW UP AT AGS/OGB. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS SUNSET. STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP AFTER
SUNSET, WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BRINGING CALM WINDS TO
ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...73
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