609
FXUS62 KCAE 130600
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
100 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS TRENDING NOT QUITE AS STRONG THURSDAY BUT STILL NEAR
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A
DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
3) COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A
DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND A BIT TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL
500MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AS THE SURFACE RIDGES SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP
DESPITE A COLD START THIS MORNING IN THE 20S. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO
OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (<25%). MUCH STRONGER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES
ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD LEAD ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT NO IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, A DRY AIR MASS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING DEW POINTS. BLENDED GUIDANCE OFTEN STRUGGLES
IN NOT DROPPING DEW POINTS FAST ENOUGH BEHIND STRONG FRONTS SO WILL
FAVOR LOWER ENDS OF THE DISTRIBUTION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL TREND AMONG
THE BLEND IS WEAKER WITH WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, NOTABLE IN
THE EC EFI AND NAEFS MEAN WHICH NOW CLOSER TO NORMAL. PROBABILITY
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH REMAINS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT
SO THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH
THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING THE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE
0.5TH PERCENTILE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MOSTLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
20F IN BLENDED GUIDANCE (AROUND 60-80%). WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY NOT BE
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND ANY WIND WILL LIKELY GET PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA TO CRITERIA. ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS, WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. SOME
PASSING, THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. AS WE
GET THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
5-10 KNOT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
PWS REMAIN QUITE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/96
AVIATION...23
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