126
FXUS62 KCAE 140011
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CURRENT DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES BELOW THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING, SO HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE INTO TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT THE DRYNESS OF THE
AIRMASS. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON
TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.
2) DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
3) COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF A DEEP DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PWAT'S CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.0". HREF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER WITH THESE
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS BUT STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS
50% AND VERY LIGHT QPF TOTALS; BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-6PM WEDNESDAY, FOCUSED ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
NOTABLE CAA DEVELOPING BEHIND IT AND THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ENHANCED LAPSE RATES WILL PIVOT CLOSER SHORTLY AFTER. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE, FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
BELOW 700MB, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING; WHILE THE HRRR REMAINS A MAJOR
OUTLIER, THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL FORCING
NEARLY ALWAYS OVER-PERFORMS GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY WHEN GUIDANCE
SHOWS NON-ZERO CAPE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TEMPS WILL BE
BORDERLINE AND ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF, SO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH RAPIDLY
DECREASING DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. GUIDANCE OFTEN
STRUGGLES IN NOT DROPPING DEW POINTS FAST ENOUGH BEHIND STRONG
FRONTS SO WILL FAVOR LOWER ENDS OF THE DISTRIBUTION. THEREFORE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY DROP TO 20-25 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES AMONG THE BLEND
MEMBERS IN WEAKER WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH REMAINS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT.
WHILE THE THREAT HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY, THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER 24-36 HOURS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, NEAR COLD WEATHER CRITERIA LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING NEARBY,
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ENHANCE THE ADVECTED COLD
AIRMASS AND DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10'S IN MOST SPOTS
EARLY FRIDAY; NBM MEMBERS NOW SHOW A 50-80% CHANCE OF SUB-20 F
TEMPS IN THE MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS A BIT LOWER. IT STILL
LOOKS BORDERLINE IF WE WILL NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCT
FOR FRIDAY BUT GUIDANCE SHOULD COME INTO A CLEAR IN THE NEXT
CYCLE OR TWO.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY EMERGING AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT & OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM INCREASES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT PROBABLY
LONGER THAN THAT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY LACKING
RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINS TO FAVOR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA,
BEGINNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOULD FALL
OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
IT WILL BECOME TOO ROBUST UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE AUGUSTA AND ORANGEBURG
SITES, WITH CAE/CUB SEEING LOWER COVERAGE OVERALL. THE RAIN IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND OUT THERE AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS IS WHERE
THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CEILING RESTRICTIONS COMES INTO PLAY
AS GUIDANCE SEEMS PRETTY LOCKED IN ON MVFR OR IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST BEFORE/AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. NOT TOTALLY
SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO GIVEN HOW DRY WE ARE CURRENTLY BUT HAVE IT
SIGNALED AS A POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH COULD
BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...82
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