761
FXUS62 KCAE 141749
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
3) VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
4) POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY IS LOADED WITH
UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL BATCH OF
RAIN THIS MORNING HELPED MOISTEN THE SURFACE LAYER UP A BIT, SO
ANY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD MORE EFFECTIVELY GET TO
THE GROUND. THE HEAVIEST BATCH OF RAIN IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE RAIN TOTALS 0.1-0.25" IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 6PM. OTHERWISE TOTALS WILL BE LOW. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES,
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACH.
SURFACE LAYER TEMPS WILL COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR SOME
FLURRIES, BUT OVERALL THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND SHOULDN'T BE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
COLD ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING NEAR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20-25%. SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE CONCERN, BUT
OVERALL FUELS ARE STILL DRY AND METEOROLOGICAL IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 3: VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER 24-36 HOURS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, NEAR COLD WEATHER CRITERIA LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING NEARBY,
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ENHANCE THE ADVECTED COLD
AIRMASS AND DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10'S IN MOST SPOTS
EARLY FRIDAY; NBM MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SUB-20 F TEMPS IN THE MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS A BIT LOWER. IT
STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE IF WE WILL NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY IS LOADED WITH
UNCERTAINTY.
A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AMERICA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS, EXPECTEDLY, ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN OR INTERNAL ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY.
SO ALL THAT NEEDS TO BE SAID RIGHT NOW IS THIS: LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD PATTERN FOR AN
OVERRUNNING WINTRY PRECIP EVENT IN EASTERN GA AND SC, WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GOA, AND SUFFICIENT COLD AIR & MOISTURE IN
PLACE. GENERALLY SOUTHERN SNOW STORMS START TO COME INTO DECENT
FOCUS IN THE MODELS AROUND 72 HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING A
BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CIGS
LOWERING TOWARD UPPER-END MVFR HEIGHTS IN AREAS OF -RA. VERY DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY LIMIT VSBY REDUCTIONS, THOUGH
SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT OGB. ADDITIONALLY,
GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR AT AGS/DNL. OVERALL, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND ENDING UP CLOSE TO SKC BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. A SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 05Z-06Z AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL BREEZINESS IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...10
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