505
FXUS62 KCAE 150009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THE RELATIVELY LITTLE AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING TODAY, THERE
IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
3) VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
4) POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY IS LOADED WITH
UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT.
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL BATCH OF
RAIN THIS MORNING HELPED MOISTEN THE SURFACE LAYER UP A BIT, SO
ANY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD MORE EFFECTIVELY GET TO
THE GROUND. THE HEAVIEST BATCH OF RAIN IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE RAIN TOTALS 0.1-0.25" IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 6PM. OTHERWISE TOTALS WILL BE LOW. LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES,
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACH.
SURFACE LAYER TEMPS WILL COLD ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR SOME
FLURRIES, BUT OVERALL THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND SHOULDN'T BE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
COLD ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING NEAR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20-25%. SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE CONCERN, BUT
OVERALL FUELS ARE STILL DRY AND METEOROLOGICAL IT IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 3: VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER 24-36 HOURS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, NEAR COLD WEATHER CRITERIA LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING NEARBY,
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ENHANCE THE ADVECTED COLD
AIRMASS AND DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10'S IN MOST SPOTS
EARLY FRIDAY; NBM MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SUB-20 F TEMPS IN THE MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS A BIT LOWER. IT
STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE IF WE WILL NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY IS LOADED WITH
UNCERTAINTY.
A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF AMERICA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS, EXPECTEDLY, ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN OR INTERNAL ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY.
SO ALL THAT NEEDS TO BE SAID RIGHT NOW IS THIS: LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD PATTERN FOR AN
OVERRUNNING WINTRY PRECIP EVENT IN EASTERN GA AND SC, WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GOA, AND SUFFICIENT COLD AIR & MOISTURE IN
PLACE. GENERALLY SOUTHERN SNOW STORMS START TO COME INTO DECENT
FOCUS IN THE MODELS AROUND 72 HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
WITH THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS AT AGS/DNL FROM NOW
THROUGH 04Z.
THE RAINFALL THAT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER HAS MOVED
WAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR HAS ACTUALLY WORKED ITS
WAY IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AS THE FRONT ITSELF APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME STRATUS THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AUGUSTA SITES OUT OF CENTRAL GA BUT THIS IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM IT AND THE AIRMASS JUST SEEMS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT TOO MUCH STRATUS. BEYOND THIS, THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY
WIND BASED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST FROM 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10Z, RELAXING UNTIL
MID-MORNING. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
WILL FOSTER GUSTY WINDS ALL DAY. GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COMMON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...82
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