639
FXUS62 KCAE 150540
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY. NEARING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES WHICH MAY BRING
WINTER WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND BREEZY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
RISK.
2) TEMPERATURES NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
3) POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND BREEZY TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 20
MPH, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING 30 MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DRIER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN ALONG WITH THE WINDS, MINIMUM
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20-25
PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LIGHT
RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY WILL HELP OUT EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT
OVERALL FUELS REMAIN DRY, AND THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW
RH VALUES WILL AID IN CREATING ADDITIONAL DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
SETS UP FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY, AND WE ARE ISSUING A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY WEATHER, BUT WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THROUGH THE DAY, SO THE THREAT SHOULD BE
REDUCED A LITTLE THEN, BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER FDS THEN EITHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY
MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COLD ACROSS THE AREA
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
MOSTLY DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT, AND DO EXPECT A CLOSE TO IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TO OCCUR. HIGH PROBABILITY OF MOST
AREAS REACHING AT LEAST 20 DEGREES TONIGHT, BUT BLENDS HAVE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DROPPING TO OR LESS
THAN 15 DEGREES FOR OUR APPARENT TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. DO
THINK WE'LL GET CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS, BUT NOT FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BASICALLY STILL A
BORDERLINE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE NEED
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCT MAY ARRIVE FOR MONDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SEEING APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME BELOW 15 DEGREES FOR A
MUCH LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR SUNDAY BUT
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SPECIFICS. WE CAN BE
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAEFS
MEAN INDICATING THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE FIRST
PERCENTILE. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH AND WHEN IT STOPS DIGGING
SOUTH AND MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA WILL BE PIVOTAL IN THE WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS AIR MASS MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA, COLD
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAVOR WET BULB TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THROUGH A LAYER EXTENDING
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. THIS CREATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
LEADS TO DEVELOPING, POTENTIALLY MIXED, PRECIPITATION. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1" OR GREATER) ARE BETWEEN
40 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA, A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM
SEVERITY INDEX INDICATES AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF MINOR
IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST OF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD AND THROUGH BETWEEN
07Z-12Z. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH ITS PASSAGE, AND DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN WIND GUSTS FOR A PERIOD THROUGH SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL. WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY EVENING. AS FOR
CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES, WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS PUSHING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON THOUGH, UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAK WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES, ALONG WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CU ALONG THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. DURING THE DAY, SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AS EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73/96
AVIATION...73
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