421
FXUS62 KCAE 151803
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
103 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION. SOME MINOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST THINKING
ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
2) TEMPERATURES NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
RH VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 30S PERCENTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES OF 25% OVER THE COMING HOURS AS STRONG CAA
CONTINUES AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DROPS DEWPOINTS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20-25
MPH ALREADY AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE WANING TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS
OUT FOR THE FA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES
BACK NEAR CRITICAL VALUES, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A TAD LIGHTER WITH ANY GUSTS CLOSER TO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. THE NEED FOR ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF WINDS TREND A
BIT HIGHER BUT FOR NOW, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF DUE TO THE
WEAKER WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MOVE
IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST.
BLENDED PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAIN BETWEEN 20-30% AND ONLY FOR A COUPLE
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO, MINIMAL WIND IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. IT IS WORTH NOTING SOME RECENT MOS
GUIDANCE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL NBM5.0 HAVE COME IN 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MORE TYPICAL SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE FA AND THUS A
COUPLE LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TEENS SEEMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE DURATION OF NEARING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS SHORT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING
CRITERIA COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REALLY HASN'T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL PHYSICS AND AI
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC. A STEADILY DIGGING TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PHASE. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY BECOME LESS POSITIVELY TILTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE NORTHERN GOA
DRIVING SOME MODEST CYCLOGENESIS. AS THIS LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A BROAD
SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN GA AND SC. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THESE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERNS, THE DETAILS OF LOW TRACK,
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT, AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE UP IN THE AIR. GEFS
AND ECE ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE DEPTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND THEREFORE THE AXIS OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALOFT; WARM ADVECTIVE FRONTOGENESIS, A NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY
FEATURE TO FORECAST IN GUIDANCE, DIRECTLY IMPACTS OMEGA IN THE
DGZ AND THEREFORE RATES, TIMING, ETC. AS A RESULT, THE GEFS
BROADLY SHOWS A ~60-70% CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH A MEAN AROUND 2.0" WHILE THE ECE IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND NOTABLE DRIER AS OF THURSDAY MORNING. IN
EITHER SET OF SOLUTIONS, THE 90TH PERCENTILES ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR
THIS EVENT WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCE TO SEE OVER 3.0" FOR
ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THROW IN THE DISAGREEMENTS
FROM THE GEM MEMBERS AND THE AI SUITES, AND THINGS GET EVEN MORE
BLURRED.
TO WRAP IT UP, THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST THANKS TO A FAIRLY "TYPICAL" AND
FAVORABLE SOUTHERN SLIDER SYSTEM BUT TIMING, SURFACE TEMPS, AND
SNOW RATIOS DO LIMIT THE HIGHER END POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT MSL THIS
AFTERNOON. BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS, WITH NW
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 06Z. ON FRIDAY,
EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-10 KTS, THOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FOG
THREAT TONIGHT GENERALLY LOW DUE TO VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17/42
AVIATION...10
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