892
FXUS62 KCAE 160002
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
702 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2) LOWS TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
3) DRY WEATHER FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REALLY HASN'T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL PHYSICS AND AI
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC. A STEADILY DIGGING TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PHASE. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY BECOME LESS POSITIVELY TILTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE NORTHERN GOA
DRIVING SOME MODEST CYCLOGENESIS. AS THIS LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A BROAD
SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN GA AND SC. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THESE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERNS, THE DETAILS OF LOW TRACK,
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT, AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE UP IN THE AIR. GEFS
AND ECE ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE DEPTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND THEREFORE THE AXIS OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS
ALOFT; WARM ADVECTIVE FRONTOGENESIS, A NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY
FEATURE TO FORECAST IN GUIDANCE, DIRECTLY IMPACTS OMEGA IN THE
DGZ AND THEREFORE RATES, TIMING, ETC. AS A RESULT, THE GEFS
BROADLY SHOWS A ~60-70% CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH A MEAN AROUND 2.0" WHILE THE ECE IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND NOTABLE DRIER AS OF THURSDAY MORNING. IN
EITHER SET OF SOLUTIONS, THE 90TH PERCENTILES ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR
THIS EVENT WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCE TO SEE OVER 3.0" FOR
ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THROW IN THE DISAGREEMENTS
FROM THE GEM MEMBERS AND THE AI SUITES, AND THINGS GET EVEN MORE
BLURRED.
TO WRAP IT UP, THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST THANKS TO A FAIRLY "TYPICAL" AND
FAVORABLE SOUTHERN SLIDER SYSTEM BUT TIMING, SURFACE TEMPS, AND
SNOW RATIOS DO LIMIT THE HIGHER END POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOWS TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT MAY APPROACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT AS
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST. BLENDED
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA REMAIN BETWEEN 20-30% AND ONLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TONIGHT. ALSO, MINIMAL WIND IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SO
WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. IT IS WORTH NOTING SOME RECENT MOS
GUIDANCE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL NBM5.0 HAVE COME IN 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MORE TYPICAL SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE FA AND THUS A
COUPLE LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TEENS SEEMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE DURATION OF NEARING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS SHORT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING
CRITERIA COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WEATHER FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER RISK.
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES BACK TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH ANY GUSTS CLOSER TO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. THE NEED FOR ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EVALUATED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF WINDS TREND A
BIT HIGHER BUT FOR NOW, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF DUE TO THE
WEAKER WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER ABOUT 15Z, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, BUT BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF TIL
AFTER 17/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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