840
FXUS62 KCAE 160553
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION. LOWER CHANCE FOR ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN-SNOW MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION HAS DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW.
2) LOWS THIS MORNING AND SUN NIGHT MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING LOWER FOR SUN
NIGHT.
3) DRY WEATHER AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEPENING
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE COAST WITH OVERRUNNING LEADING TO DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TRENDS IN THE GFS AND
GEFS SUITE HAVE BROUGHT IT CLOSER IN LINE WITH EC AND EC ENSEMBLES
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST, ALTHOUGH AGAIN
THIS CAN BE A TRICKY FEATURE TO PINPOINT AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO APPEAR MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
OUTSIDE OF SOME STRONGER BANDING WHERE SNOW RATES WOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS APPEARS TO BE LESS
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PROGGED STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER THE
CEILING OF THIS SNOW EVENT. BLENDED GUIDANCE PROBABILITY OF 1
INCH OR GREATER OF SNOW IS AROUND 10-20% ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A
NOTABLE DECREASE AMONG GEFS MEMBERS IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS,
INDICATING THAT THE HIGHER-END LIMIT WILL GENERALLY BE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. WHILE
IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING HOW THINGS MAY EVOLVE AS WE ENTER
INTO THE TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE, AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW MIXING IN
WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE. DRIER AIR LIKELY MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOWS THIS MORNING AND SUN NIGHT MAY APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING LOWER FOR
SUN NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FIRMLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE, WITH
SOME LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING APPARENT TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY
SUNRISE, BRINGING BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS MORNING. SO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS BY SUNRISE,
WITHOUT THE WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONVERGE TO WHAT
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE. IE WHAT THE EXPECTED MORNING LOWS
WILL BE FOR THIS MORNING. SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY ADVISORY WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING THAT IS LOWER AT THIS
TIME. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG DUE
TO WINDS KEEPING UP AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THIS
WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE 20S. WITH
THE WINDS ADDED IN, APPARENT TEMPERATURE READINGS REMAINING
ABOVE 15 DEGREES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO THE
CURRENT THINKING WOULD BE THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD NOT
BE NEEDED FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WEATHER AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINT READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50, THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH IS BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF BETWEEN 5-10 MPH AND GUSTS ONLY UP TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 KNOTS, AND WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TOWARDS 08Z AS LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE. AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 15Z, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. THUS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 17/00Z-06Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73/96
AVIATION...73
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