252
FXUS62 KCAE 161805
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
105 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY HAVE
TRENDED DOWN. CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
SUNDAY NIGHT HAS ALSO DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
- FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW.
- LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING DOWN.
- LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIX SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW.
AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ROLL IN, THE OVERALL OUTLOOK
FOR SUNDAY'S SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS
IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST REGION, LEADING TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE NORTHERN GULF THAT THEN RIDES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING WAA ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS REMAINS THAT PRECIP THAT INITIALLY FALLS
AS RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
DISPLACEMENT OF GREATER FORCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
12Z GEFS HAS CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL OVER 1" BETWEEN 10-20% MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. THE EC ENSEMBLE PAINTS A SIMILAR
PICTURE AS THIS.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND HOW MARGINAL NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM/GFS, AS THE SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST DEVELOPS, OVERLAP BETWEEN SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE (THUS FORCING FOR
ACCENT) IS EVIDENT, MAKING MESOSCALE BANDING OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES POSSIBLE. THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF THESE
MODELS HOWEVER MAKES FINE TUNING PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THIS
FORCING DIFFICULT, THOUGH AS MORE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REACHES
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS CONFIRMATION IN THIS
POSSIBILITY. A LOOK AT HIGH-RES SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ON TOP OF A
RATHER DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING AND THUS ENHANCED DENDRITE GROWTH
FROM MESOSCALE FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENOUGH TO BRING THESE GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE
SURFACE.
OVERALL, THE CEILING FOR THIS EVENT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ON THE LOWER END AND VERY
DEPENDENT ON ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING THAT COULD BRING
ENHANCED RATES THAT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IT IS WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR IMPACTS STILL AROUND 20% IF HIGHER END SNOW
AMOUNTS CAN BE REALIZED. THE MAIN HAZARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REFREEZING WET SURFACES THAT COULD CREATE
SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS
MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING
LOWER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING
THAT IS LOWER AT THIS TIME. THE WINTER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST AROUND 3-5 MPH, HINDERING IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOSE WINDSPEEDS COULD INDUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. IF
WINDSPEEDS TREND FASTER, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS FAR BUT
APPARENT TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. PWATS WILL FALL BELOW 0.5", AND IN
PARTICULAR BELOW 0.25" BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER, AND NEARLY CALM TUESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE CWA CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NEEDING A HEADLINE ONE OR BOTH OF THESE NIGHTS
COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WEATHER AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO DIP BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50, THIS WILL BRING MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-20%, WHICH
IS BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. HOWEVER, WINDSPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF AN OCCASIONAL GUST. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR HEADLINES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SKC INTO THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, GENERALLY SCT AROUND 5KFT MSL WITH BKN
CIRRUS ABOVE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS AFTER 14Z SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAFS. SFC WINDS SWLY THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 KTS. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE TONIGHT, A LLJ AROUND 30-40 KTS MAY INDUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS
FROM ABOUT 04Z-14Z AROUND 2KFT MSL. AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE,
THE LLWS THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH SLY/SWLY WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS
DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/17
AVIATION...10
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