367
FXUS62 KCAE 170009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW.
- 2) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW.
A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT THEN RIDES ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING WAA ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS REMAINS THAT PRECIP THAT
INITIALLY FALLS AS RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNALS
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
MAINLY DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF GREATER FORCING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE 12Z GEFS HAS CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL OVER 1"
BETWEEN 10-20% MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. THE EC
ENSEMBLE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE AS THIS.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND HOW MARGINAL NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM/GFS, AS THE SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST DEVELOPS, OVERLAP BETWEEN SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE (THUS FORCING FOR
ACCENT) IS EVIDENT, MAKING MESOSCALE BANDING OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES POSSIBLE. THE COARSER RESOLUTION OF THESE
MODELS HOWEVER MAKES FINE TUNING PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THIS
FORCING DIFFICULT, THOUGH AS MORE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REACHES
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS CONFIRMATION IN THIS
POSSIBILITY. A LOOK AT HIGH-RES SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ON TOP OF A
RATHER DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING AND THUS ENHANCED DENDRITE GROWTH
FROM MESOSCALE FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENOUGH TO BRING THESE GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE
SURFACE.
OVERALL, THE CEILING FOR THIS EVENT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ON THE LOWER END AND VERY
DEPENDENT ON ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING THAT COULD BRING
ENHANCED RATES THAT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IT IS WORTH CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR IMPACTS STILL AROUND 20% IF HIGHER END SNOW
AMOUNTS CAN BE REALIZED. THE MAIN HAZARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REFREEZING WET SURFACES THAT COULD CREATE
SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING
THAT IS LOWER AT THIS TIME. THE WINTER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST AROUND 3-5 MPH, HINDERING IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOSE WINDSPEEDS COULD INDUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. IF
WINDSPEEDS TREND FASTER, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS FAR BUT
APPARENT TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. PWATS WILL FALL BELOW 0.5", AND IN
PARTICULAR BELOW 0.25" BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER, AND NEARLY CALM TUESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE CWA CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR NEEDING A HEADLINE ONE OR BOTH OF THESE NIGHTS
COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING
IN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT LATE. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOPING, PRODUCING SOME LLWS THROUGH
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THE START OF THE LLWS HAS BEEN BACKED UP A
COUPLE OF HOURS, HOWEVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS, BUT STILL VFR BEGIN
TO MOVE IN AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO, BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. AGS AND DNL COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z, WITH SOME
TERMINALS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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