424
FXUS62 KCAE 170549
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SNOW BAND TO SET UP OVER PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH END AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER AND MUCH OF THE AREA
LIKELY WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
2) ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH INTO THE
MISSIPPI VALLEY LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF GA/SC IN
WHAT IS A TYPICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WINTER WEATHER IN OUR AREA.
THE ISSUE WE WILL RUN INTO IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
AND OVERRUNNING WILL LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING, CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET ANY
KIND OF MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION WHEN THE COLD AIR IS NOT
ALREADY IN PLACE. RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SUNDAY MORNING BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR FREEZING AND GROUND TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING.
HIRES MODELS DO STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS LEADING TO SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW RATES WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS LEADING TO SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGHER END AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH AND MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE
LESS THAN THIS (OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL). WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS LESS THAN AN INCH, WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE
SOME MINOR IMPACTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, LIKELY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, IF AND WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP BUT OVERALL,
WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COLDER AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP ON ROADS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE AS A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY
OUT ROADS, BUT PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD, INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. EC EFI HIGHLIGHTS THE
AREA IN POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES SUN, MON AND
TUE NIGHTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S MONDAY MORNING WITH A TIGHT SPREAD WITHIN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH A
RENINFORCING COLD FRONT LIKELY LATE MONDAY. COLDEST NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITY IN STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE AREA. LREF INDICATES AROUND A 30-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND CHILLS BELOW 20F EACH NIGHT,
INDICATING THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL AT LEAST NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
SKIES ARE STARTING OFF CLEAR, BUT THERE IS MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE THE UPSTATE OF BOTH SC AND GA WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD AND TOWARDS TAF LOCATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PUSH IN AFTER 12Z, BUT REMAINING BROKEN VFR THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE EVENING HOURS, AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z, AND HAVE AT LEAST ADDED
VCSH BEGINNING BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. CAN NOT RULE OUT PREDOMINANT
RAINFALL BEING ADDED, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL. AS FOR
WINDS, LIGHT WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING EXPECTED. AREA WIND
PROFILES SHOWING STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LLWS THROUGH SUNRISE
AT LEAST, THEN AS MIXING STARTS, SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT LLWS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z, WITH SOME
TERMINALS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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