217
FXUS62 KCAE 171114
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SNOW BAND TO SET UP OVER PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH END AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER AND MUCH OF THE AREA
LIKELY WILL RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
2) ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LOW. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF
GA/SC IN WHAT IS A TYPICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WINTER WEATHER
IN OUR AREA. THE ISSUE WE WILL RUN INTO IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHILE A COLDER AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AND OVERRUNNING WILL LEAD TO RAIN
DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING, CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHEN THE COLD AIR IS NOT ALREADY IN PLACE. RAIN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR FREEZING
AND GROUND TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING.
HIRES MODELS DO STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS LEADING TO SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW RATES WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS LEADING TO SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGHER END AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH AND MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE
LESS THAN THIS (OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL). WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS LESS THAN AN INCH, WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE
SOME MINOR IMPACTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, LIKELY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, IF AND WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP BUT OVERALL,
WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COLDER AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP ON ROADS. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE AS A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY
OUT ROADS, BUT PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD, INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. EC EFI HIGHLIGHTS THE
AREA IN POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES SUN, MON AND
TUE NIGHTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S MONDAY MORNING WITH A TIGHT SPREAD WITHIN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT LIKELY LATE MONDAY. COLDEST NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITY IN STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE AREA. LREF INDICATES AROUND A 30-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND CHILLS BELOW 20F EACH NIGHT,
INDICATING THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL AT LEAST NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
A MIXTURE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SURGED EASTWARD
AND WILL BE OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN ISSUANCE TIME
AND 13Z WITH CEILING RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO MVFR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED, CEILING WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RETURN TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR
TOWARDS 06Z TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENT MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
GA. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL,
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN, WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK
UP TO THE 5-10 KT, WITH SOME TERMINALS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT
TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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