512
FXUS62 KCAE 180556
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BURKE, COLUMBIA, LINCOLN,
MCDUFFIE, AND RICHMOND COUNTIES FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EST TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS, PRIMARILY
IN THE CSRA TODAY.
- 2) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS,
PRIMARILY IN THE CSRA TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN GA.
THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE EXPECTED MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN TODAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A SIMILAR
PICTURE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
AS THE FORCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT BEGINS TO TILT SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING WILL STEADILY DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40'S
REGION-WIDE. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TRAILING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL THEN UNDERCUT THE PRECIP SHIELD AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN WET BULB TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30'S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PERIOD OF SNOW (OR AT LEAST A RAIN-SNOW MIX) TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE CSRA BY ~9AM. AS SEEN IN THE HREF
SOUNDINGS AND FRONTAL CROSS SECTIONS, THERE WILL BE BAND OF
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST DGZ OMEGA WITHIN THIS PRECIP
SHIELD, BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALIGNED THE COLDEST WET BULB TEMPS;
OVERALL, TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL (AT BEST) WITH THIS EVENT
AND GREATLY LIMITS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. IF WE APPLY THE
TYPICAL BEHAVIOR AND BIASES OF THE HREF WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTOGENESIS, WAA, AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, I EXPECT TO SEE A
BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG PRECIP DURING THE 12-16Z WINDOW THANKS TO
THE ENHANCED WAA-FRONTOGENESIS, PULLING TO THE NORTHWEST OF HREF
GUIDANCE, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVELS. THE NAMS REMAIN
OUTLIERS BUT DO HANDLE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA IN WHAT I
BELIEVE TO BE A SOMEWHAT MORE REALISTIC MANNER; HOWEVER,
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY BORDERLINE EVEN IN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE. SO THIS FORECAST THINKING BLENDS THAT IN
TO SOME EXTENT.
SO FOR IMPACTS IN GA AND WESTERN SC FIRST: A MIX OF RAIN-SNOW LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN GA AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN SC STARTING AFTER
~8AM AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SNOW ONLY
ALSO IS LIKELY DURING THAT SAME WINDOW, BUT ACCUMULATION WILL QUITE
DIFFICULT GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPS. A BRIEF HEAVIER PERIOD OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS WINDOW AS WELL AND THIS WOULD BE
THE ONLY WAY TO SEE ANY SORT OF IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION, BUT
STILL ONLY 1.0" IS THE UPPER END FOR THIS EVENT. MOVING UP I-20
INTO THE MIDLANDS, A MIX OF RAIN- SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW POSSIBLE
IN THAT WINDOW. ACCUMULATION LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY AS THE PRECIP
RATES WILL STRUGGLE TO ADEQUATELY WET BULB THIS AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. FURTHER EAST TOWARDS I-95, MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN- SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, VERY COLD AIR WILL FILL IN
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RUN ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY WILL DOWN INTO AT
LEAST THE LOW 20'S WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES.
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST, WITH SOME LOW TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS LIKELY AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN MOVING IN WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
SUNRISE.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SWATH OF RAINFALL BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE
CSRA, WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS THE RAIN GETS HEAVIER, CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY, THEN INTO IFR
BETWEEN 09-10Z. IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL, THERE IS SOME PROBABILITY
OF SEEING SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES. IN
ADDITION, A MIXTURE MAY BE SEEN AT THE MIDLANDS SITES OF CAE/CUB
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS FORECAST THEN TO BEGIN
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS 22Z, WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS COLD, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...73
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