211
FXUS62 KCAE 181122
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION. OTHERWISE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
FOR BURKE, COLUMBIA, LINCOLN, MCDUFFIE, AND RICHMOND COUNTIES
UNTIL 3 PM EST TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS, PRIMARILY
IN THE CSRA TODAY.
- 2) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS,
PRIMARILY IN THE CSRA TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN GA.
THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE EXPECTED MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN TODAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A SIMILAR
PICTURE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
AS THE FORCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT BEGINS TO TILT SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING WILL STEADILY DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40'S
REGION-WIDE. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TRAILING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL THEN UNDERCUT THE PRECIP SHIELD AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MORNING, WHICH WILL THEN WET BULB TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30'S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PERIOD OF SNOW (OR AT LEAST A RAIN-SNOW MIX) TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE CSRA BY ~9AM. AS SEEN IN THE HREF
SOUNDINGS AND FRONTAL CROSS SECTIONS, THERE WILL BE BAND OF
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AND MODEST DGZ OMEGA WITHIN THIS PRECIP
SHIELD, BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALIGNED THE COLDEST WET BULB TEMPS;
OVERALL, TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL (AT BEST) WITH THIS EVENT
AND GREATLY LIMITS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. IF WE APPLY THE
TYPICAL BEHAVIOR AND BIASES OF THE HREF WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTOGENESIS, WAA, AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, I EXPECT TO SEE A
BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG PRECIP DURING THE 12-16Z WINDOW THANKS TO
THE ENHANCED WAA-FRONTOGENESIS, PULLING TO THE NORTHWEST OF HREF
GUIDANCE, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVELS. THE NAMS REMAIN
OUTLIERS BUT DO HANDLE THE FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA IN WHAT I
BELIEVE TO BE A SOMEWHAT MORE REALISTIC MANNER; HOWEVER,
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY BORDERLINE EVEN IN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE. SO THIS FORECAST THINKING BLENDS THAT IN
TO SOME EXTENT.
SO FOR IMPACTS IN GA AND WESTERN SC FIRST: A MIX OF RAIN-SNOW LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN GA AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN SC STARTING AFTER
~8AM AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SNOW ONLY
ALSO IS LIKELY DURING THAT SAME WINDOW, BUT ACCUMULATION WILL QUITE
DIFFICULT GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPS. A BRIEF HEAVIER PERIOD OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS WINDOW AS WELL AND THIS WOULD BE
THE ONLY WAY TO SEE ANY SORT OF IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION, BUT
STILL ONLY 1.0" IS THE UPPER END FOR THIS EVENT. MOVING UP I-20
INTO THE MIDLANDS, A MIX OF RAIN- SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW POSSIBLE
IN THAT WINDOW. ACCUMULATION LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY AS THE PRECIP
RATES WILL STRUGGLE TO ADEQUATELY WET BULB THIS AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. FURTHER EAST TOWARDS I-95, MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN- SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, VERY COLD AIR WILL FILL IN
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RUN ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY WILL DOWN INTO AT
LEAST THE LOW 20'S WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES.
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS THE COLDEST, WITH SOME LOW TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS LIKELY AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 19Z. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL, ALONG WITH
CEILINGS STILL MOSTLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH 19Z, WITH SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, THERE REMAINS A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE CSRA
SITES OF AGS/DNL TO SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME BEFORE A RETURN TO LIGHT RAIN. BY 19Z,
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF TAF LOCATIONS, AND CLOUDS
WILL BE VFR, LIFTING, AND STARTING TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST, MOSTLY BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY, AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AS COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...73
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