735
FXUS62 KCAE 181752
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EASTERN GA EXPIRES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX COMING TO AN END. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THE NEED FOR A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BEING MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EASTERN GA EXPIRING AT 3PM, POSSIBLY EARLIER.
PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON WET SURFACES.
- 2) ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE MULTIPLE
DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EASTERN GA EXPIRING NOW. PATCHY BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON WET SURFACES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN GA.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CSRA AND INTO
THE MIDLANDS OF SC WITH REPORTS HERE COMING OUT OF PARTS OF
AIKEN, EDGEFIELD, AND EVEN SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTIES. PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN SEEN IN MCDUFFIE, LINCOLN,
AND PARTS OF COLUMBIA AND RICHMOND COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT
SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO ACCUMULATE MUCH HERE OUTSIDE OF SOME
GRASSY AREAS WITH WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES. CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM THE NOW SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA, CONTINUING TO BRING PREDOMINATELY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN BUT PERIODS OF NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES MIXING IN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 19-21Z
WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING AS DRIER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE
SHARP SHORTWAVE.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND ANY
WET SURFACES WILL BE AT RISK FOR REFREEZING AND CREATING BLACK
ICE AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS THAT REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT COULD HELP
DRY SURFACES SOME BEFORE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THUS WIDESPREAD
BLACK ICE AND SLICK ROADS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT PATCHES OF
THESE SLICK CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE
MULTIPLE DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK, BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS ON TUESDAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER. BLENDED
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20F EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROACH 30-40%, HIGHEST TOWARD THE PEE DEE
AND THUS WHILE THE CURRENT OUTLOOK KEEPS VALUES ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH THE TAF SITES LIKELY TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN COMMON TODAY AS
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AGS/DNL HAVE NOT
REALLY REPORTS RASN BUT WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE DOWN THERE FOR A WHILE. THE SYSTEM DRIVING THIS PRECIP
IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY NOTED AT AGS/DNL ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB ENDING BY 21Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
TO TAKE OVER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIVING COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO STAY UP BETWEEN 4 AND 8
KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EACH SITE. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 6 TO
12 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AS COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...82
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