435
FXUS62 KCAE 182101
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. ANY SNOW HAS QUICKLY
MELTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS DEPART.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW SPOTS OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
- 2) ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE MULTIPLE
DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SPOTS OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT IN POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.
WITH CLOUDS DEPARTING, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL
EVAPORATE. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ALSO HELPING TO
DRY OUT ROADWAYS. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND ANY STANDING WATER WILL BE AT RISK
FOR REFREEZING AND CREATING BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE ISSUES. THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE SPOTS THAT DO NOT DRAIN WELL AND THAT TYPICALLY HOLD
WATER FOR SOME TIME AFTER RAIN EVENTS. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE
MULTIPLE DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK, BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS ON TUESDAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER. BLENDED
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20F EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROACH 30-40%, HIGHEST TOWARD THE PEE DEE
AND THUS WHILE THE CURRENT OUTLOOK KEEPS VALUES ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH THE TAF SITES LIKELY TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN COMMON TODAY AS
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AGS/DNL HAVE NOT
REALLY REPORTS RASN BUT WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE DOWN THERE FOR A WHILE. THE SYSTEM DRIVING THIS PRECIP
IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY NOTED AT AGS/DNL ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB ENDING BY 21Z.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
TO TAKE OVER AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIVING COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO STAY UP BETWEEN 4 AND 8
KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EACH SITE. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 6 TO
12 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AS COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...82
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