419
FXUS62 KCAE 182328
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW SPOTS OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
- 2) ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE MULTIPLE
DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SPOTS OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT IN POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.
WITH CLOUDS DEPARTING, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL
EVAPORATE. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ALSO HELPING TO
DRY OUT ROADWAYS. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND ANY STANDING WATER WILL BE AT RISK
FOR REFREEZING AND CREATING BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE ISSUES. THE ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE SPOTS THAT DO NOT DRAIN WELL AND THAT TYPICALLY HOLD
WATER FOR SOME TIME AFTER RAIN EVENTS. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN EARLY THIS WEEK WHERE
MULTIPLE DAYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS BEEN TRENDING THE COLDEST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK, BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BUT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS ON TUESDAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER. BLENDED
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20F EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROACH 30-40%, HIGHEST TOWARD THE PEE DEE
AND THUS WHILE THE CURRENT OUTLOOK KEEPS VALUES ABOVE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS AS
TODAY'S STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE WESTERLY
TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
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