469
FXUS62 KCAE 252354
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RETURNING TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SUBFREEZING TEMPS REMAIN LOCKED IN FOR THE NORTHERN FA. ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- 2) COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED MULTIPLE
NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUBFREEZING TEMPS REMAIN LOCKED IN FOR THE
NORTHERN FA. ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT, MODERATE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING. SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL, SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN SALUDA COUNTY NORTH
INTO LANCASTER COUNTY WHICH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. SOME OF
THESE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WITH ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN ON THE WAY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WE MAY SEE
POWER OUTAGES INCREASE.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN CSRA WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RECOVER TO FREEZING.
THESE LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES WILL NOT BE THE MOST EFFICIENT FOR ICE
ACCRETION WITH MUCH OF THE QPF BECOMING RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH WITH
ALL SURFACES, INCLUDING ROADWAYS, ALREADY SATURATED AND BELOW
FREEZING, ICE WILL FORM FROM THE ONSET.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS IN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY,
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES WHICH FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WE MAY NEED TO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR BLACK ICE FOR THE MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED MULTIPLE NIGHTS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL PROMOTE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S, FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S EACH NIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE
WIND, COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES THAT APPROACH OR EXCEED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IN
MEETING CRITERIA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
PLAIN RAIN WITH FLUCTUATING CEILINGS, WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD
OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z.
A FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE AIRSPACE WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN.
UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES HAVE FAILED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AT
MOST SITES SO FAR, LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED ICE ACCUMULATION.
AT AUGUSTA THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY PLAIN RAIN MOVING FORWARD, AND
A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT
COLUMBIA SITES. THE STEADY RAIN HAS SUPPORTED THE SCOURING OF
ALL LIFR, AND IN SOME CASES IFR, CEILINGS. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ROUGHLY 04-05Z, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED DOWNWARD SUCH THAT LIFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 12Z OR SO. ONCE CLOUDS SCATTER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT
TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER INTERVAL OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
VFR CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY SKC, LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-037-115-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ035-038-
041-135>137.
GA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ077.
DISCUSSION...07/CJR
AVIATION...99
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