297
FXUS62 KCAE 260545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1245 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A VERY COLD WEEK IS ON TAP. DAILY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER
TEENS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS.
OUR WINTER STORM, AS OF MIDNIGHT MONDAY, IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY
OUT WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 30S AHEAD OF THE REAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COLD, ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THAT WILL BE VIA REINFORCEMENTS OF SAID
ARCTIC AIR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN TEMPERATURES 10F-20F
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS, AS THE
PHYSICS BASED GUIDANCE & AI GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD IS
INDICATIVE OF HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 2M TEMP ANOMALIES <10F BELOW
NORMAL, WITH THEIR MEAN 2M TEMP ANOMALIES FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD
OF 7P TODAY THROUGH 7P NEXT MONDAY (2/3/26) AN IMPRESSIVE 10F
TO 15F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
EQUATE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS
ROUTINELY IN THE 20S. RIGHT NOW, TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT AS THE FRIGID AIRMASS THAT DROVE THE CONUS SCALE WINTER
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY WILL STAY 5-10 MPH WITHIN THIS AIRMASS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD YIELD 8F-15F WIND CHILLS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND WE WILL ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 10P THIS EVENING THROUGH 9A TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS THIS COLD
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SO WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES THEN
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THAT WITH ANY PRECISION.
BE SURE TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOUR HOUSE AND PIPES FROM ANY
PIPE BURSTS BY DRIPPING FAUCETS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
EVENTUALLY VFR.
RAIN, MODERATE AT TIMES, CONTINUES STREAMING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE, CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
HOVERING AROUND 500 FT AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS
TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH FROM LIFR AND IFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z OR
SO, BEFORE IMPROVING. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO END AROUND THEN AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES, BECOMING VFR AROUND 15Z-16Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING, AFTER 23Z-00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY SKC,
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-037-115-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ035-038-041-135>137.
GA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ077.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...29
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