723
FXUS62 KCAE 261121
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER
TEENS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS.
OUR WINTER STORM, AS OF MIDNIGHT MONDAY, IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY
OUT WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 30S AHEAD OF THE REAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COLD, ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THAT WILL BE VIA REINFORCEMENTS OF SAID
ARCTIC AIR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN TEMPERATURES 10F-20F
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS, AS THE
PHYSICS BASED GUIDANCE & AI GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD IS
INDICATIVE OF HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 2M TEMP ANOMALIES <10F BELOW
NORMAL, WITH THEIR MEAN 2M TEMP ANOMALIES FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD
OF 7P TODAY THROUGH 7P NEXT MONDAY (2/3/26) AN IMPRESSIVE 10F
TO 15F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
EQUATE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS
ROUTINELY IN THE 20S. RIGHT NOW, TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT AS THE FRIGID AIRMASS THAT DROVE THE CONUS SCALE WINTER
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY WILL STAY 5-10 MPH WITHIN THIS AIRMASS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD YIELD 8F-15F WIND CHILLS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND WE WILL ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM 10P THIS EVENING THROUGH 9A TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS THIS COLD
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SO WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES THEN
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THAT WITH ANY PRECISION.
BE SURE TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT YOUR HOUSE AND PIPES FROM ANY
PIPE BURSTS BY DRIPPING FAUCETS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BECOME VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING BEHIND MVFR TO
VFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z-15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE ARE IFR CEILINGS
APPROACHING CAE AND CUB, SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THOSE AS WELL. ONCE THE TERMINALS GO TO VFR, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE MAIN INCREASE.
WINDS DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY SKC,
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...29
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