762
FXUS62 KCAE 261403
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
903 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
A COLD, ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES 10F-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS, AS THE PHYSICS BASED GUIDANCE & AI GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD IS INDICATIVE OF HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 2M TEMP ANOMALIES
<10F BELOW NORMAL, WITH THEIR MEAN 2M TEMP ANOMALIES FOR THE 7
DAY PERIOD OF 7P TODAY THROUGH 7P NEXT MONDAY (2/3/26) AN
IMPRESSIVE 10F TO 15F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS ROUTINELY IN THE 20S.
TONIGHT MAY BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT AS THE FRIGID AIRMASS THAT
DROVE THE CONUS SCALE WINTER STORM OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS LIKELY WILL STAY 5-10 MPH
WITHIN THIS AIRMASS AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
THIS SHOULD YIELD 8F-15F WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND
WE WILL ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10P THIS EVENING
THROUGH 9A TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS THIS COLD OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, SO WE MAY NEED ADVISORIES THEN ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE THAT WITH ANY PRECISION. BE SURE TO TAKE STEPS TO
PROTECT YOUR HOUSE AND PIPES FROM ANY PIPE BURSTS BY DRIPPING
FAUCETS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BECOME VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING BEHIND MVFR TO
VFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z-15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE ARE IFR CEILINGS
APPROACHING CAE AND CUB, SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THOSE AS WELL. ONCE THE TERMINALS GO TO VFR, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE MAIN INCREASE.
WINDS DECREASE TO ABOUT 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY SKC,
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR/82
AVIATION...29
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