555
FXUS62 KCAE 261759 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2) FOLLOWING A STRETCH OF CALM BUT COLD WEATHER THIS WEEK, AN
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
VERY COLD 1042MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NAEFS SHOWING
1000MB TEMPS WELL BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS SHOULD YIELD WIND CHILLS
WITHIN OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND VALUES RANGING FROM 8F
TO 15F. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 10P TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM
TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STAYING BELOW A QUARTER INCH. A COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NAEFS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND MODEL
2M TEMP ANOMALIES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A STRETCH OF CALM BUT COLD WEATHER THIS WEEK,
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
GENERALLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40'S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20'S IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PATTERN QUICKLY BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY SATURDAY AS THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US DIGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE JET DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND AI SUITE ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL RAPIDLY DRIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST US TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THESE
ENSEMBLES, AND INFERRING FROM THE AI OUTPUT, ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS, CAUTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN IN TRUSTING ANY ENSEMBLE AND MODEL IN THIS RANGE YET, EVEN
THOSE WITH INTERNAL ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE DIGGING TROUGH (WITH ITS OWN INTERNAL DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVES) AND THE SOUTHERN JET IS INHERENTLY CHAOTIC FROM A
PROGNOSTICATION STANDPOINT; EJECTING-DECAYING CUTOFF MID LEVEL
TROUGHS, LIKE WE SEE FROM CANADA IN THIS SETUP, ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. SO EXPECT SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN GUIDANCE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT SNOW POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE LOW DEEPENS, WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND WHATEVER OCCURS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE HELPING SCATTER OUT
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS.
CLOUDS WITH A BASE HOVERING NEAR 2000 TO 2500 FEET HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
FULLY SCATTER AT COLUMBIA AND ORANGEBURG, BUT SATELLITE TRENDS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLEARING IS QUICKLY IMPINGING ON
CAE/CUB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS
LONGER AT OGB, WHICH IS WITHIN A MORE PROMINENT AXIS OF LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. ASIDE FROM THESE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NO
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z,
THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL HELP BOOST THESE WINDS ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS 03Z WITH A TENDENCY TO BE MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS THEN WILL
DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING NEAR 4-7 KNOTS, MAINLY 10Z ONWARD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY SKC LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
THEN IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...99
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