688
FXUS62 KCAE 262335
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2) FOLLOWING A STRETCH OF CALM BUT COLD WEATHER THIS WEEK, AN
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
VERY COLD 1042MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NAEFS SHOWING
1000MB TEMPS WELL BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS SHOULD YIELD WIND CHILLS
WITHIN OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND VALUES RANGING FROM 8F
TO 15F. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 10P TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM
TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STAYING BELOW A QUARTER INCH. A COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NAEFS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND MODEL
2M TEMP ANOMALIES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A STRETCH OF CALM BUT COLD WEATHER THIS WEEK,
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
GENERALLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40'S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20'S IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PATTERN QUICKLY BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY SATURDAY AS THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US DIGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE JET DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND AI SUITE ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL RAPIDLY DRIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST US TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THESE
ENSEMBLES, AND INFERRING FROM THE AI OUTPUT, ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS, CAUTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN IN TRUSTING ANY ENSEMBLE AND MODEL IN THIS RANGE YET, EVEN
THOSE WITH INTERNAL ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE DIGGING TROUGH (WITH ITS OWN INTERNAL DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVES) AND THE SOUTHERN JET IS INHERENTLY CHAOTIC FROM A
PROGNOSTICATION STANDPOINT; EJECTING-DECAYING CUTOFF MID LEVEL
TROUGHS, LIKE WE SEE FROM CANADA IN THIS SETUP, ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. SO EXPECT SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN GUIDANCE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT SNOW POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE LOW DEEPENS, WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND WHATEVER OCCURS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS BECOMING
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
A LONG DURATION OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED,
WITH AVIATION IMPACTS LIMITED TO SOME WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS AT
ALL TERMINALS. CROSSWINDS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH TYPICAL
NORTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE LLWS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUBTLE BOUNDARY WILL HELP BACK
WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT SITES INCLUDING
CAE TO NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS 02Z WITH AN INCREASE IN GUSTINESS,
WHILE DNL MAINTAINS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY
09Z AS THEY VEER WESTERLY OR WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.
DIURNAL MIXING WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KNOTS BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER
22Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY SKC LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
THEN IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...99
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