003
FXUS62 KCAE 270610
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. UPDATES FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9A, WITH WELL-BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- 2) ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9A, WITH WELL-
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF SO FAR THIS EVENING INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO COOL
QUITE AS FAST AS FORECAST AS WINDS HAVE STAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH SO
FAR THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPS PRETTY EASILY FALL
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION, WITH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA EASILY HIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN COMING UP PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN
COMES UP AND ALLOW US TO GET WELL ABOVE CRITERIA DESPITE WINDS
PICKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS HARDLY THE FIRST COLD NIGHT WE WILL HAVE THIS WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS PERIOD. TELECONNECTIONS
TELL THE STORY, WITH THE COUPLING OF A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA AND
STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO COMBINING TO YIELD A PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN
COLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS STRONG, PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL
FAVOR PERSISTENTLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48, WITH THIS AIRMASS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SEE HIGHS GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PERSISTENTLY IN THE 20S. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, PIPES FREEZING WILL
BE A BIG THREAT GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT
WE ARE GOING TO END UP SEEING AS THE NIGHTS REMAIN COLD. TAKE STEPS
TO ENSURE THAT YOUR PIPES ARE PROTECTED BY DRIPPING FAUCETS AND
KEEPING THAT WATER FLOWING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON,
WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PHYSICS BASED AND AI GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. ITS DONE THIS FAIRLY QUICKLY
OVER THE LAST 4-6 MODEL RUNS, SHOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY & PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE & RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN VALLEY TO OUR WEST. THE
CANADIAN & ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE (BOTH PHYSICS-BASED AND AI) WERE
THE FIRST TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION & THIS HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS WITH THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT,
INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SIMPLER THAN IT
WAS LAST WEEKEND AS THERMAL PROFILES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL FAVOR SNOW AS
THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE, THOUGH THIS COULD ALWAYS CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT ITSELF. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE STRAIGHT UP GELID, SO OVERALL SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OVERALL, THIS IS A COMPLEX SETUP THAT
WILL (AS ALWAYS) REQUIRE SEVERAL THINGS TO FALL INTO PLACE JUST
RIGHT IN ORDER FOR US TO SEE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF EACH INDIVIDUAL PART WOULD YIELD A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN OUR EXPECTED OUTCOMES. AIFS AND AIGFS
GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER ON THE 00Z, WITH THE AIFS
SHOWING A VERY CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE
PAST 24H. I'D PROBABLY FAVOR THIS GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN
VERIFYING WELL LATELY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PHYSICS-BASED GUIDANCE.
IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT PANS OUT. IT IS UNCOMMON
TO HAVE A SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP LIKE THIS THAT ALSO OVERLAPS
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. STAY
TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 8-10 KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FIRST COUPLE
OF HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY SKC LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
THEN IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...29
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