459
FXUS62 KCAE 271658 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
- 2) ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS WARMED
PRETTY QUICKLY ALLOWING US TO GET WELL ABOVE CRITERIA DESPITE
WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS HARDLY THE FIRST COLD NIGHT WE WILL HAVE THIS WEEK. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS PERIOD. TELECONNECTIONS
TELL THE STORY, WITH THE COUPLING OF A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA AND
STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO COMBINING TO YIELD A PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN
COLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS STRONG, PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL
FAVOR PERSISTENTLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48, WITH THIS AIRMASS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SEE HIGHS GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PERSISTENTLY IN THE 20S. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, PIPES FREEZING WILL
BE A BIG THREAT GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT
WE ARE GOING TO END UP SEEING AS THE NIGHTS REMAIN COLD. TAKE STEPS
TO ENSURE THAT YOUR PIPES ARE PROTECTED BY DRIPPING FAUCETS AND
KEEPING THAT WATER FLOWING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON,
WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PHYSICS BASED AND AI GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. ITS DONE THIS FAIRLY QUICKLY
OVER THE LAST 4-6 MODEL RUNS, SHOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY & PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE & RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN VALLEY TO OUR WEST. THE
CANADIAN & ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE (BOTH PHYSICS-BASED AND AI) WERE
THE FIRST TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION & THIS HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS WITH THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT,
INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SIMPLER THAN IT
WAS LAST WEEKEND AS THERMAL PROFILES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL FAVOR SNOW AS
THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE, THOUGH THIS COULD ALWAYS CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT ITSELF. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE STRAIGHT UP GELID, SO OVERALL SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OVERALL, THIS IS A COMPLEX SETUP THAT
WILL (AS ALWAYS) REQUIRE SEVERAL THINGS TO FALL INTO PLACE JUST
RIGHT IN ORDER FOR US TO SEE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF EACH INDIVIDUAL PART WOULD YIELD A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN OUR EXPECTED OUTCOMES. AIFS AND AIGFS
GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER ON THE 00Z, WITH THE AIFS
SHOWING A VERY CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE
PAST 24H. I'D PROBABLY FAVOR THIS GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN
VERIFYING WELL LATELY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PHYSICS-BASED GUIDANCE.
IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT PANS OUT. IT IS UNCOMMON
TO HAVE A SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP LIKE THIS THAT ALSO OVERLAPS
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. STAY
TUNED!
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION LATE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP AFTER ABOUT 16Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
BUT BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY SKC LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
THEN IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...23
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