868
FXUS62 KCAE 272328
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE
CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- 2) WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE
CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S
POTENTIAL SYSTEM. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US AND COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL
AID IN BRINGING THESE CONDITIONS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 40S INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
NIGHTS WHERE LOWS INTO THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. RIGHT NOW OVERNIGHT
LOW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT TAKING STEPS TO ENSURE THAT PIPES ARE PROTECTED BY
DRIPPING FAUCETS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THIS WEEKEND THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM COULD DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS, BUT HOW COLD IT GETS WILL
PARTLY BE DEPENDENT ON IF SNOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE FA WITH THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH CHANGE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN
RESPONSE TO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE, BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM, AMPLE COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY WARM AIR
INTRUSION ALOFT (AT THIS TIME) AND SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. PRECIPITATION TYPE METEOGRAMS FROM THE EURO
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EITHER RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE STORM, ESPECIALLY IF
THE MODELS SHOWING AN EARLIER START TIME PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES
COULD POTENTIALLY WARM UP ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE CSRA
ON SATURDAY, AS INDICATED BY THE NBM, WHICH WOULD LOWER ANY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AS SEEN WITH THE LAST EVENT, THE PLACEMENT,
STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE UPPER PATTERN WOULD SHIFT THE AREA
OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, THEREFORE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
NAIL DOWN A SPECIFIC CORRIDOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE
LATEST WSSI-P FOR MODERATE IMPACTS FROM SNOW AMOUNTS RANGES FROM
20% IN BURKE COUNTY TO 50% IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY SUGGESTING
THE THE THREAT OF AN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL INCREASES THE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST YOU GO ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW SETUP PRESENTED BY THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND VFR. IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND
THE VERY DRY THE AIRMASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES VFR.
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KNOTS NEAR 2 KFT. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WEAKENS AFTER 06Z, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SURFACE WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THEN IMPACTFUL
AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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