889
FXUS62 KCAE 281754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STRETCHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM THIS COMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A LONG DURATION STRETCH OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A LONG DURATION STRETCH OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DRIVING OUR COLD WEATHER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. PERSISTENT, DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AREA, WITH 500
HPA HEIGHTS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TELECONNECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
GUIDANCE UNIFORMLY SHOWING STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA VALUES AND STRONGLY
NEGATIVE NAO VALUES. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG, COLD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, EXTENDING EASTWARD AND MAINTAINING OUR COLD
AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. LOOKING AT MULTI-DAY TEMPERATURE
MEANS, AI AND PHYSICS BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS 7 DAY TEMP ANOMALIES IN
10F-15F BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE 1-5/2-6/3-7 DAY
ECE EFI FOR MEAN TEMPS IS REALLY ROBUST IN THIS AREA, WITH
VALUES OF -0.8 TO -0.9! WHILE WE WON'T BE NEAR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL THIS COMING WEEKEND (MORE ON THAT IN THE
NEXT SECTION), THE PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER COULD PRESENT A
COMPOUNDING PROBLEM WITH POORLY INSULATED PIPES AROUND HERE.
PLEASE BE SURE TO DRIP FAUCETS AT NIGHT TO AVOID PIPES BURSTING!
KEY MESSAGE #2: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OVERALL MESSAGE HAS NOT CHANGED REGRADING THIS, ALBEIT
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN THE SETUP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT ITSELF. OVER THE NEXT 24H, A ROBUST PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF A 500 HPA LOW BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND
THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS VORTICITY ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY
GUIDANCE TO THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EMERGING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. BY THIS POINT, A BROAD
AREA OF VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN
TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET STREAM, WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PARENT VORT MAX WILL BEGIN
PHASING WITH THIS VORTICITY PLUME AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS BY THIS POINT. BROAD, ROBUST LIFT IS THEN FORECAST TO YIELD
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, WITH A BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE LOW. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GELID
AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA, WILL FAVOR ALL SNOW/RAIN AS
OPPOSED TO THE RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED TIGHTER THAN IT WAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO
WHEN WE WERE FIRST GETTING A HANDLE ON THIS AND SEEING SOME LEVEL OF
MODEL CONSISTENCY. GUIDANCE TRENDS (IF YOU CAN FIND THEM) HAVE
GENERALLY FAVORED A SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE ANECDOTALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS, WHICH IS TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY
THE OVERALL PATTERN AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. IN THIS CASE, THAT
MEANS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE, SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST, WITH
THE UPPER LOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT SOMEWHERE OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND GEORGIA. AIFS/GFSAI/CANADIAN GUIDANCE WAS THE FIRST
TO REALLY POINT TO THIS YESTERDAY & HAS CONTINUED TO DO SO, WITH
THE PHYSICS-BASED GFS/ECMWF MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS AS WELL. AS SUCH, THE FORMER GROUPING OF MODELS IS
FAVORED CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF CONSISTENCY & THE WAY THEY'VE
VERIFIED RECENTLY. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE HAS HAD A SLOW BUT
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN FORECAST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE ALL OF THIS IS THE CASE, THE FORECAST STILL CONTAINS A GOOD
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. THESE EVENTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN & AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE, THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PIECES TO THIS FORECAST.
AS I ALWAYS TELL MY FRIENDS & FAMILY WHEN THEY ASK ABOUT SNOW AROUND
HERE, "IT TAKES A LOT OF LUCK AND GOOD FORTUNE FOR US TO GET DECENT
SNOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH BECAUSE SO MUCH NEEDS TO ALIGN JUST RIGHT".
WELL, THE WINDS OF FORTUNE MAY BE BLOWING IN OUR FAVOR, AT LEAST FOR
SNOW-LOVERS, THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL,
IF NOT SIGNIFICANT, SNOW EVENT COULD BE ON TAP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED: THE
AIRMASS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT FRIGID.
TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S FOR HIGHS
EITHER DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
LIKELY IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL. SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECAST AS THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE CHANGING AND
ADJUSTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS!
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN, EXPECT
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT AROUND 4-7 KTS. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, THEN IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THEN IMPACTFUL
AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...10
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