570
FXUS62 KCAE 290539
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATES TO THE KEY MESSAGES WILL BE SENT OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS/
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
- 2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING INTO THIS
WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, THE PROBABILITY OF
WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THAT THIS UPPER
LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD, USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MASS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE EC
EFI INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF BELOW -0.8 TO -0.9 FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN
TO OUR WEST. BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE VERY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
(NAEFS MEAN INDICATING THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
MINIMUM) IS LIKELY TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND ITS PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO
THE FORECAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRONG LIFT AND
STRENGTHENING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY, THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A
LOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR MOSTLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET (SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE), WHICH WOULD
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW AS THE REINFORCING VERY COLD
AIR MASS AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, LIMITING ANY
WARM AIR ALOFT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE
IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW, WHICH NOW SITS AT GREATER THAN
50% OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO SOME OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
AN AREA OF POTENTIALLY MAJOR IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW
WHERE HEAVIER BANDING SETS UP, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THIS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE (IT MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA).
BOTTOM LINE: PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING FORECASTS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT REMAINS NORTH OF COLUMBIA
WHERE BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITY (ESPECIALLY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OUT) OF 60-80% OF WINTER STORM WARNING LEVEL (2 INCH)
SNOW AMOUNTS. WHILE WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCH PRODUCTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE OTHER KEY
MESSAGE AND EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION, IT BEARS REPEATING THAT
THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS FOR ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING EXTREME COLD
CRITERIA.
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP AND BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING
THE SC MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 40S
(PERHAPS 50 BY FRIDAY) AND LOWS IN THE 20S THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
WEEKEND'S WINTER SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE 72-
96 HOUR EC EFI FOR MIN TEMPS SHOWS -0.7 TO -0.9, WHILE THE 96-120
HOUR PERIOD IS EVEN STRONGER AT -0.9 TO -0.99 OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, THESE VALUES ARE -0.6 TO -0.8 AND -0.8
TO -0.95 FOR THESE PERIODS, RESPECTIVELY. WHILE WE STILL DON'T
EXPECT TO BE NEAR ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER COULD PRESENT A
COMPOUNDING PROBLEM WITH POORLY INSULATED PIPES AND ANYONE
WITHOUT ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT HEATING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER THAT. CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER THAT, IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES
MORE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY
MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...29
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