393
FXUS62 KCAE 292000
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MAJOR SNOW STORM IS POSSIBLE. EXTREME
COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS NEAR 0F.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS A MAJOR SNOW STORM IS POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS A MAJOR SNOW STORM IS
POSSIBLE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS TENDED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR HE
500MB TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH FAVORS
INCREASING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
FROM POSITIVELY TILTED TO NEUTRAL AND FINALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PULL IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
CLIMATOLOGICAL SETUP FOR OUR MOST NOTABLE HISTORICAL SNOWFALL EVENTS
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US,
REINFORCED BY THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT, UNLIKE LAST WEEK, THIS EXPECTED TO BE A MOSTLY
SNOW EVENT (ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET SOME BRIEF MIXING IS POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ALL SNOW). STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED
JUST NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THE ACCOMPANYING 850MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONGER BANDING OF SNOW LEADING TO HIGHER
RATES AND THUS MORE ACCUMULATION. WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA (2 INCHES), HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE WATCH,
MAINLY BECAUSE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY NOT START UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING,
GIVING US MORE THAN 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MAJOR IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 5-8 INCHES IN THE FORECAST AND
HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT LEAST IN PART OF THE AREA
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
TYPICALLY OUR CLIMATOLOGY SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO IS AROUND 8:1 BUT
WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN, BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING SLR CLOSER
TO 15:1 TO MAYBE EVEN 20:1 WHICH MEANS THAT THE SNOW WILL BE A LOT
FLUFFIER THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE. THIS MEANS THAT LESS RAINFALL WILL
ATTRIBUTE TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST, WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS (MENTIONED MORE IN KEY MESSAGE 2). WHILE THERE
REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, STILL THINK IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEES AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW.
TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT LIKELY FALL INTO THE 20S. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IS THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS WINTER STORM.
WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT SNOW WILL BE ON THE GROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-35
MPH, A FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED. BLENDED GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SITS
NEAR THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS) BUT EVEN THE 50TH PERCENTILE BRINGS LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW
10'S TO MID TEENS, WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS IN
PLACE AS WELL, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0F TO 5F WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH SPOTS DIPPING AS LOW AS -3F. DUE TO THIS, AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 10S, TO MID
TEENS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WHERE COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN.
OVERALL, PROLONGED COLD WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT LIKELY TONIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT. A EXTREME
COLD WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE FA SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ANOTHER PRODUCT COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. PROBLEMS WITH POORLY INSULATED PIPES
CAN BE EXPECTED AND BE SURE TO MINIMIZE TIME OUTSIDE FOR PEOPLE AND
PETS IN THESE VERY COLD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE BEING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
CIRRUS MOVE INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS THAT GO CALM
IN SOME SPOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO PICK UP TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES MORE
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96/17
AVIATION...17
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