430
FXUS62 KCAE 301130
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL GO
INTO EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SUMMARY: THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
6 TO 8 INCHES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 3 TO 6 INCHES
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT COULD VARY LOCALLY. WIND GUSTS ABOVE
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS VERY COLD WIND CHILLS (MENTIONED
MORE IN KEY MESSAGE 2).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA WITH A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF A COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
A FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGICAL SETUP FOR OUR MOST NOTABLE HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL EVENTS WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN US, REINFORCED BY THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE
WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL OVER
THE AREA IN GENERAL IS HIGHER THAN A TYPICAL WINTER EVENT, THERE
ARE STILL SOME SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD LEAD TO VARYING
AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS. MESOSCALE PROCESSES SUCH AS BANDING
AND DYNAMICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS ARE ALSO FAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS COULD LEAD TO PHENOMENA RARELY SEEN IN THE REGION
SUCH AS BLOWING SNOW.
TIMING: ON FRIDAY EVENING THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY NOT BE SATURATED UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SPRINKLES
UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND ICE IS INTRODUCED TO THE
CLOUD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WE
WOULD EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. SNOW RATES SHOULD PICK UP
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, STRONG WINDS, AND BITTER COLD
MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE MAY
SEE TRAVEL IMPACTS EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE AREA
SINCE THE FEBRUARY 2010 SNOW STORM AND FALL INTO THE TOP 20 OF SNOWFALL
EVENTS FOR THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING WINTER WEATHER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE, ALTHOUGH TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE
WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS (AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS). WITH THE
ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT, TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, BUT LIKELY ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, TEMPS
DON'T RISE THAT MUCH AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA STAYS BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS BEING IN THE
CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS, WHERE TEMPS COULD EDGE ABOVE
FREEZING BY A DEGREE OR TWO. A SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO EXIT THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO LIKELY RECORD SETTING COLD
AMBIENT TEMPS, THE WINDS MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE #1 WILL CAUSE
WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 0F FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT AT THESE WIND CHILLS, FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN THE
MATTER OF 30-40 MINUTES TO EXPOSED SKIN. FRIGID AIR HANGS ON FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE EXPECTED FRESH SNOW
PACK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD REASONABLY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NONETHELESS, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO LIKELY MVFR, POTENTIALLY IFR, AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE REGION AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH AGAIN TO NORTHEAST
AS THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE PUSHES THE ONSET BACK
SOMEWHAT AND LIKELY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29/CJR
AVIATION...29
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