741
FXUS62 KCAE 301946
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 DEGREES. SNOW FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WE ENTER RANGE
FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH THIS WEEKENDS
SYSTEM, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE
DIGGING 500MB TROUGH ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EVIDENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN. THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IN
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, NOT COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED AS WE GET INTO THE NEAR TERM.
THIS PATTERN MATCHES CLIMATOLOGY FOR SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS A RESULT, WE CAN BE REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN
THE OVERALL SNOW FOOTPRINT OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS PULLED
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG LIFT CONTRIBUTES TO DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION. THIS TROUGH USHERS IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT, IT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. AS A RESULT,
VERY CONFIDENT THAT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA OF 2 INCHES
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE QUESTION IS SOME OF THE UPPER BOUNDS DUE TO MESOSCALE FEATURES
THAT MODELS WITH TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO SPECIFICALLY RESOLVE.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVES US A GOOD LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER BANDING WITH FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB
LEVEL WITH HREF MEAN INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AS THIS INCREASED LIFT WILL LINE UP WITH THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA GENERALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS, ALONG WITH A VERY COLD COLUMN
LEADING TO HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, WILL LEAD TO A FLUFFY
SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH CHANCES FOR
GREATER THAN 8 INCHES IS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
COLUMBIA. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDLANDS) IN OVER
TEN YEARS.
IMPACTS: SNOW WILL LIKELY START EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
GUIDANCE FAVORING HEAVIEST SNOW RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB LOW.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL, FURTHER LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CREATING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH THIS WEEKENDS
SYSTEM, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY.
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 20S IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
IN, BUT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LIKELY BARELY REACH
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE VERY COLD AIR, MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 12-16F, THANKS TO FRESH SNOWPACK AND THE COLD
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WIND CHILLS NEAR 0F WITH SPOTS
DIPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND DUE TO THIS, THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT IN THESE WIND
CHILLS, FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN THE MATTER OF 30-40 MINUTES TO
EXPOSED SKIN. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY ONLY REACH
32-35F, LEADING TO ONLY MINOR MELTING OF SNOW, THUS KEEPING A
SNOWPACK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 10'S
TO MID TEENS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 15F
HAVE REACHED 60-80%, BUT LUCKILY LITTLE WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING WIND CHILLS NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR EXCEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO MONDAY MORNING, THUS THE NEED FOR ONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEFORE A WINTER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
IN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILING
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE SNOW MOVES IN SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS ALSO NEARING PARTS OF THE CSRA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FAIRLY VARIABLE AROUND 3-5 KTS, BUT SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-8 KTS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN AFTER 03-07Z
AND THUS A PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THE
MAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12-14Z
GENERALLY. WITH THIS SYSTEM, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, BUT PICKING UP TO 7-11 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS WINTRY
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RESTRICTIONS MAY IMPROVE COME
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WITH CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
LOWERING EARLY IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...17/96
AVIATION...17
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