747
FXUS62 KCAE 310628
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
RUNNING THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. KEY MESSAGE 2 AND AVIATION
UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) ATYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOWSTORM
AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE
DIGGING 500MB TROUGH ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EVIDENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN. THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IN
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, NOT COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED AS WE GET INTO THE NEAR TERM.
THIS PATTERN MATCHES CLIMATOLOGY FOR SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS A RESULT, WE CAN BE REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN
THE OVERALL SNOW FOOTPRINT OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS PULLED
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG LIFT CONTRIBUTES TO DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION. THIS TROUGH USHERS IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT, IT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. AS A RESULT,
VERY CONFIDENT THAT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA OF 2 INCHES
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE QUESTION IS SOME OF THE UPPER BOUNDS DUE TO MESOSCALE FEATURES
THAT MODELS WITH TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO SPECIFICALLY RESOLVE.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVES US A GOOD LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER BANDING WITH FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB
LEVEL WITH HREF MEAN INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AS THIS INCREASED LIFT WILL LINE UP WITH THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA GENERALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS, ALONG WITH A VERY COLD COLUMN
LEADING TO HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, WILL LEAD TO A FLUFFY
SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH CHANCES FOR
GREATER THAN 8 INCHES IS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
COLUMBIA. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDLANDS) IN OVER
TEN YEARS.
IMPACTS: SNOW WILL LIKELY START EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
GUIDANCE FAVORING HEAVIEST SNOW RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB LOW.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL, FURTHER LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CREATING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ATYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S, WITH LOWER 30S
POSSIBLE IN URBAN CENTERS AND IN THE SOUTHERN CSRA. IT IS
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
(CHESTERFIELD, KERSHAW, LANCASTER, AND LEE) AND NORMALLY COLD
LOCATIONS, BUT WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING SLATED TO GO INTO
EFFECT TOMORROW EVENING, OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A PRODUCT FOR
TONIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: LIKEWISE, WHILE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET LATER TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE,
THE MOST SEVERE COLD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDLANDS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNING AS
CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE MET AROUND THE START TIME OF 7PM THIS
EVENING. THE ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH BY SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO +5 DEGREES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND: TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE SNOWSTORM, MEANING SNOW MELT WILL BE
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT
WILL REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDLANDS, AND PERHAPS THE CSRA, BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE EXISTING
EXTREME COLD WARNING. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON MONDAY, PUTTING AN END TO THE COLD WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SNOWSTORM....
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A
WINTER STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30
GROUP FOR SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF
SNOW AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE DAY GOES
ON, LIKELY REDUCING VISIBILITY AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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