955
FXUS62 KCAE 310741
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
RUNNING THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
- 2) A TYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA.
INSTEAD OF REHASHING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES DISCUSSED IN
DETAIL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WE'LL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND IMPACT ON THE FORECAST/IMPACTS.
LATEST TRENDS: MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER
UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NC PIEDMONT INTO THE SC UPSTATE THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO
THE CATAWBA, NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ULTIMATELY THIS HAS SHIFTED THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
IMPACTS: WE EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER. THE HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP MAY BRING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTH
OF AUGUSTA, GA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS IN
THESE AREAS TOO AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WON'T MOVE INTO
THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND
CREATING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ATYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S, WITH LOWER 30S
POSSIBLE IN URBAN CENTERS AND IN THE SOUTHERN CSRA. IT IS
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
(CHESTERFIELD, KERSHAW, LANCASTER, AND LEE) AND NORMALLY COLD
LOCATIONS, BUT WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING SLATED TO GO INTO
EFFECT TOMORROW EVENING, OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A PRODUCT FOR
TONIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: LIKEWISE, WHILE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET LATER TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE,
THE MOST SEVERE COLD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDLANDS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNING AS
CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE MET AROUND THE START TIME OF 7PM THIS
EVENING. THE ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH BY SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO +5 DEGREES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND: TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE SNOWSTORM, MEANING SNOW MELT WILL BE
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT
WILL REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDLANDS, AND PERHAPS THE CSRA, BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE EXISTING
EXTREME COLD WARNING. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON MONDAY, PUTTING AN END TO THE COLD WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SNOWSTORM....
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A
WINTER STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30
GROUP FOR SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF
SNOW AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE DAY GOES
ON, LIKELY REDUCING VISIBILITY AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...07/CJR
AVIATION...07
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