208
FXUS62 KCAE 311150
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
650 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE AND AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
- 2) ATYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOWSTORM
AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA.
INSTEAD OF REHASHING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES DISCUSSED IN
DETAIL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WE'LL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND IMPACT ON THE FORECAST/IMPACTS.
LATEST TRENDS: MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NC PIEDMONT INTO THE SC UPSTATE THIS MORNING
AND MOVE INTO THE CATAWBA, NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND POSSIBLY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ULTIMATELY THIS HAS
SHIFTED THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
IMPACTS: WE EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER. THE HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WILL BRING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THE HREF LPMM AND PMM INDICATES SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 12 INCHES IN THIS HEAVIER BAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES, NEARER THE NC BORDER. ELSEWHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTH OF AUGUSTA, GA.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS IN THESE AREAS TOO AS
THE 500MB LOW MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WON'T MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ATYPICALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES FELL STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
MIDLANDS AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON DUE TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS, WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING GOING INTO
EFFECT AT 7PM THIS EVENING. THE ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH BY SATURDAY
EVENING TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO +5
DEGREES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND: TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE SNOWSTORM, MEANING SNOW MELT WILL BE
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT
WILL REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDLANDS, AND PERHAPS THE CSRA, BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE EXISTING
EXTREME COLD WARNING. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ON MONDAY, PUTTING AN END TO THE COLD WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING....
CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS SNOW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP. PERIODS OF
SNOW, IFR CEILINGS, AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE SNOW AND WINDS WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AS WELL. ONCE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE, THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN POOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, GRADUALLY
IMPROVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...07/CJR
AVIATION...07
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