020
FXUS62 KCAE 311752
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA, HEAVIEST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA. STILL EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, INCLUDING IN THE CSRA. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SNOW IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH MAJOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COLUMBIA.
- 2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SNOW IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH MAJOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COLUMBIA.
LATEST TRENDS: RADAR CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST AS 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB LOW NEAR THE GA/SC
BORDER. THIS IS LEADING TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 850MB
LEVEL. AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL ALOFT, THIS LEVEL WILL LINE
UP WITH THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR ACCUMULATION, HELPED BY THE FACT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WELL BELOW FREEZING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE NORTHERNMOST
AREA AS THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RATES FOR THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF TIME. STILL THINK EVERYWHERE WILL GET WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW (GREATER THAN TWO INCHES), ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THIS IN THE CSRA MAY FALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT (FEW HOURS)
PERIOD. THE SNOW BANDS HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHERN AREA FOR
LONGER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA SINCE 2004 WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES, POTENTIALLY UP TO A FOOT. BASED ON SOME
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, MAINLY KCLT, SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS ARE
BETWEEN 15:1 TO 20:1, MUCH HIGHER THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE,
LEADING TO FLUFFIER SNOW. THIS WILL BE NOTABLE AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 850MB LOW AND WITH
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW
AND FURTHER LOWERING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT REMAIN OVER A SPECIFIC LOCATION
FOR LONG.
IMPACTS: ROAD TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE,
ESPECIALLY AS SNOW RATES PICK UP AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
PLOWS OR OTHER ROADWAY TREATMENT TO KEEP UP. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW VISIBILITIES
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS CAUSING VEHICLES TO LOSE TRACTION. SNOW
GENERALLY TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH TRAVEL IS GENERALLY NOT ADVISED
KEY MESSAGE #2: VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOWSTORM AND BRING SEVERAL BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 7PM TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM TOMORROW.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND: TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE SNOWSTORM, MEANING SNOW MELT WILL BE
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES MELT
WILL REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE EXISTING SNOW PACK
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY BUT LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION. A WARMING
TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY, PUTTING AN END TO
THE COLD WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHILE A
VERY STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TN AND INTO
NORTHERN GA AND ALL OF SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ALREADY BEING
INDICATED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT 18Z, WITH DETERIORATING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO TRACK OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, TAKING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BETWEEN
08Z-12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS. EXPECTING VFR THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, DEPENDING UPON AIRPORT
SNOW REMOVAL PROCEDURES, RUNWAYS COULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IS APPEARS AS THIS ONE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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