798
FXUS62 KCAE 011758
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING IT SPOTS AS ANY LINGERING LIQUID OR SNOW ON
ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
BLACK ICE MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN SPOTS MONDAY
MORNING.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. BLACK ICE MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN SPOTS
MONDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS IS BEING COMPOUNDED BY
THE SNOW PACK THAT IS BEGINNING TO MELT, BUT WILL TAKE AWHILE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW. CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO STRONG RADIATION COOLING, AGAIN ENHANCED BY THE SNOW.
WENT A BIT BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN THESE SCENARIOS. THIS LEADS TO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE AREA, EVEN WITH WINDS
BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AS AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREA.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TONIGHT TO 10AM
TOMORROW. WHILE THERE IS SOME MELTING GOING ON TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES, ANY LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL
REFREEZE TONIGHT IN SPOTS WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG WHICH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG
REMAINS UNLIKELY.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY NEAR AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
MELTING AND BY MID WEEK, IT'LL BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LEFT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. DEEP
SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WE
WILL SEE PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
FAVOR LIKELY POPS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANY MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA ALREADY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, AND FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE AREA, AND LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT, CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. WITH TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET, ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE ON AIRPORT RUNWAYS COULD REFREEZE AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS ONCE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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