201
FXUS62 KCAE 012342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN SPOTS AS ANY
LINGERING LIQUID OR SNOW ON ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
BLACK ICE MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN SPOTS MONDAY
MORNING.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. BLACK ICE MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN SPOTS
MONDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO STRONG RADIATION COOLING. COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED
BY ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK WHICH DID NOT MELT EARLIER TODAY.
WENT A BIT BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN THESE SCENARIOS. THIS LEADS TO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE AREA, EVEN WITH WINDS
BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AS AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREA.
AS SUCH, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY LINGERING SNOW OR
LIQUID ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT IN SPOTS
WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
HAZARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG WHICH SOME OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING, BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG REMAINS UNLIKELY.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY NEAR AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
MELTING AND BY MID WEEK, IT'LL BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LEFT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. DEEP
SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WE
WILL SEE PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
FAVOR LIKELY POPS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANY MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA ALREADY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 3-5 KTS. LIGHTS WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GOING CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE IS
SOME CIRRUS OFF TO THE WEST IN NORTHERN GA THAT MAY MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT, BUT BESIDES THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY MOISTURE FROM
SNOW MELT TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 15-17Z. WHILE PATCHY FREEZING FOG CONTINUES TO
LOOK UNLIKELY TONIGHT (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) IT CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT A COUPLE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. AFTER THIS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING MID-WEEK COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS
BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...96/10
AVIATION...17
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