868
FXUS62 KCAE 022006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
306 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING WETTER
FOR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WARM UP TOMORROW. PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS
LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON ROADS.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WARM UP TOMORROW. PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT WHERE
THERE IS LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON ROADS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT. BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, AND EVEN INTO THE
TEENS IN THE NORTHEASTERN-MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE
THE BLACK ICE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED WITH SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND DRYING TODAY,
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL, MOSTLY
IN SHADY SPOTS NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA. TOMORROW THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT
AS IT MOVES IN MODELS FAVOR A DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH TO THE WEST
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WITH
INCREASING PWATS (HREF MEAN INDICATING APPROACHING AN INCH) AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY TREND HAS BEEN WETTER AMONG
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORED SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE PWATS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE MOST. THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA, BUT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
JUST A NOTE THAT WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RUMORS OF SNOW WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING DRY AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF THERE WAS
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THERE WOULD BE ICE IN THE CLOUD WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING TOO
SHALLOW.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS, MUCH BETTER MIXING HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM BY SUNSET. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page