350
FXUS62 KCAE 022351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGE 1. OVERALL, ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WARM UP TOMORROW. PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS
LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON ROADS.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WARM UP TOMORROW. PATCHY BLACK ICE TONIGHT WHERE
THERE IS LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON ROADS.
TEMPERATURES WARMED UP QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW MELTING EVEN WHERE THERE
WAS A THICK SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTH. WE ARE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, THOUGH LIKELY NOT AS COLD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN.
WITH THE SNOWPACK DIMINISHING IN AERIAL EXTENT, EXPECTING THAT
TO PLAY A SMALLER PART IN THE LOW TEMP EXTENT ACROSS THE NORTH,
WITH IT PLAYING NO ROLE ELSEWHERE. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AROUND
500 FEET WHICH COULD HELP KEEP US MORE MIXED AT THE SURFACE THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO
PUSH OVERHEAD BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, BUMPED UP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE GET
INTO THE TEENS OR LOW 20S IN SOME WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL, THOUGH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT
AS IT MOVES IN MODELS FAVOR A DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH TO THE WEST
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WITH
INCREASING PWATS (HREF MEAN INDICATING APPROACHING AN INCH) AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY TREND HAS BEEN WETTER AMONG
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORED SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE PWATS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE MOST. THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA, BUT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
JUST A NOTE THAT WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RUMORS OF SNOW WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING DRY AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EVEN IF THERE WAS
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER AIR, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THERE WOULD BE ICE IN THE CLOUD WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING TOO
SHALLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A COUPLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING THIS EVENING, BUT OUTSIDE OF
THIS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS A 25-30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE REGION, THUS LLWS IS NOT IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT IF SURFACE WINDS END UP NEAR CALM, THIS
MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED. AFTER THIS, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AT 7-9 KTS
WHERE A COUPLE GUSTS NEAR 15 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...17
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