051
FXUS62 KCAE 031148
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE #1
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND BLACK ICE THIS MORNING.
- 2) A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND BLACK ICE THIS MORNING.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA AT DAYBREAK WITH
VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 20S. AREAS OF BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT SAW SNOW MELT YESTERDAY.
EXPECT A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE UPCOMING UPPER PATTERN AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL ON WEDNESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
THOUGH FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND REMOVED ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED, DRIER AIR
MOVING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION PRIOR TO
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF A
SPOTTY SHOWER, RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY DAWN AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OCCURS. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO
CALM THROUGH 15Z THEN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO
9 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-6 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AFTER 06Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS
LOWER THAN VFR THROUGH 12Z BUT POSSIBLY COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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