701
FXUS62 KCAE 031811
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH HREF MEAN INDICATING PWATS RISE TO 0.9-1 INCH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL REINFORCE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW OVER
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS, LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAIN AS THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINS IN DROUGHT. HREF MEMBERS INDICATE RAIN RATES WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT GENERALLY FAVOR RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION, IT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND
BECOME LIGHT. A NOTE THAT WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, WITH
MOISTURE SO SHALLOW IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WOULD BE ICE THE
CLOUD. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALONG THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, IMPACTS
WOULD BE LIMITED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL A SHORT
PERIOD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE.
UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. EXPECTING THIN
CIRRUS TO CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE REGION, WITH THOSE BEING THE
PRIMARY CLOUD TYPE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REALLY BEGIN BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT.
THROUGH THAT PERIOD THOUGH, VFR CEILINGS WILL STILL OCCUR AS
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWERING CEILING INTO MVFR
WILL OCCUR TOWARDS 11Z-12Z, WITH A RAPID DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
SHORTLY THERE AFTER AT ALL SITES. WIND LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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