401
FXUS62 KCAE 040022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION, WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO KEY
MESSAGE 1. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK!
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH HREF MEAN INDICATING PWATS RISE TO 0.9-1 INCH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL REINFORCE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW OVER
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS, LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTALS WILL BE BENEFICIAL, WITH HREF/REFS
GUIDANCE SHOWING GENERALLY 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION AMONGST GUIDANCE OF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF
RAINFALL WHERE PROBABILITIES OF 1"+ OF RAINFALL INCREASE BUT THE
LOCATION OF THAT VARIES AMONGST HI-RES ENSEMBLES. DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION, IT IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME LIGHT. A NOTE THAT WHILE SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THIS
PERIOD, WITH MOISTURE SO SHALLOW IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WOULD
BE ICE THE CLOUD. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL A SHORT PERIOD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE.
UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, BUT RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH RAIN CHANCES.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE REGION
BUT INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT JUST WEST OF
THE AREA WITH A DECK AROUND 4500 TO 8000 FT DEVELOPING OVER
PARTS OF GA. OVERNIGHT, THIS DECK FILL IN AFTER 03-06Z WITH
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. THERE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF LLWS OUT
OF THE TAF. AFTER 09-11Z, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FILL IN AT THE
AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS FIRST BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD
OGB. AS RAIN MOVES IN, IFR CEILINGS SHOULD FILL IN WITH BOTH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY REMAINING THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY, UP TO 7-9 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. RETURNING DRY AIR SHOULD
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...17
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