030
FXUS62 KCAE 041139
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER THIS MORNING, PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE "WARM" SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE CYCLONE NOW
CENTERED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE. RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A HALF AN
INCH AND AN INCH BUT COULD BE LIGHTER THAN THAT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE MAY BE A SHARP CUTOFF
TO THE RAIN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HI-
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INCREASINGLY DRY MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLING, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE ALOFT,
REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WHILE ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
BRIEF, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ICING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
AND/OR BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL AT OR BELOW FREEZING THERE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
PRODUCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE STORM UNFOLDS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE.
UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST OR LOWER TO LIFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY
LOWERED THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE 12Z-15Z
TIME FRAME BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
15Z. RAIN EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT
THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AND
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE RELAXING A
BIT AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BUT
IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
RETURNING DRY AIR SHOULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page